Geographers Had Predicted Osama's Possible Whereabouts

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Geographers Had Predicted Osama's Possible Whereabouts

Postby Kevin » Fri May 06, 2011 12:02 pm

Geographers Had Predicted Osama's Possible Whereabouts
ScienceInsider, 2011.0502

"Could Osama bin Laden have been found faster if the CIA had followed the advice of ecosystem geographers from the University of California, Los Angeles?

"Probably not, but the predictions of UCLA geographer Thomas Gillespie, who, along with colleague John Agnew and a class of undergraduates, authored a 2009 paper predicting the terrorist’s whereabouts, were none too shabby.

"According to a probabilistic model they created, there was an 88.9% chance that bin Laden was hiding out in a city less than 300 km from his last known location in Tora Bora: a region that included Abbottabad, Pakistan, where he was killed last night. ..."

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http://news.sciencemag.org/scienceinsid ... lated.html
Last edited by Kevin on Fri May 06, 2011 4:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Kevin
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Really! Oh my God.

Postby Ed Ziomek » Fri May 06, 2011 2:01 pm

Kev, they predicted OBL's location, within 282,600 square kilometers?

Let me do the math....

"88.9% chance that bin Laden was hiding out in a city less than 300 km from his last known location in Tora Bora..."

Pie R Squared! 3.14 x 300,000 meters x 300,000 meters = 282,600 square kilometers!

At 2.589 square kilometers per square mile... 282,600 div by 2.589, that's 109,154 square miles!

Wow! Close enough for government work? How many Wall Street PhD's thought that one up?
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